Joint Analysis of Lightning-Induced Forest Fire and Surface Influence Factors in the Great Xing’an Range

For several decades, warming-induced fires have been widespread in many forest systems. A forest fire could be a potential indicator, since the Great Xing’an Range is susceptible to global climate changes and frequent extreme events. This region has a relatively integrated forest community structure. This paper investigated 35 factors to explore how natural conditions affect fire scale. We analyzed the fire spatiotemporal distribution, by combining the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and historical records, and then reconstructed the fire-prone climate conditions. We used an exploratory model to minimize the climate factors and a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model to predict regional large-scale lightning fire occurrence. The main results are (1) Lightning fire occurrence increased during the past four decades, and the regional fire season starts from the spring (May to June). (2) The time of occurrence of lightning fires had a strong correlation with the occurrence density. (3) The main natural factors affecting a fire-affected area are air moisture content, topographic slope, maximum surface air temperature, wind direction, and surface atmospheric pressure. The regional climate can be characterized that the prevailing southeastern wind bringing lots of precipitation and strong surface pressure, combined with the regional periodic lightning weather and irregular high temperatures, forming fire-prone weather. The abnormal soil water content in the spring led to vegetation growth and increased fuel storage. The low air water content and long-term water deficit made the local air dry. Lightning strikes are an influential factor in fire frequency, while climatic conditions shape the fire-affected areas. (4) The seven days of pre-fire data are more accurate for studying lightning fire occurrence. The GTWR model showed the best fitness among the four models. Fire-prone areas showed a trend of increasing from south to north. In the future, lightning fires will likely occur in this region’s north and east. Our work would promote the local forest fire policy-making process.